E24: Markets trend down, political pandemic manipulation, stimulus breakdown, biological Patriot Act

Chamath Palihapitiya argued that rising rates were stripping SPACs of their bond-like appeal and could produce busted deals. At near-zero rates, investors could park $10 in a SPAC and redeem for $10; as safer yields improved, weak deals risked falling below their redemption value and facing mass withdrawals before closing.

Palihapitiya framed the 2020 recession as unusual because shutdowns effectively priced the economic bottom immediately. In a normal recession policymakers cut rates while guessing when activity will trough; here, forced closure sent activity near zero at once, making the early crash a uniquely obvious buying point in hindsight.

Palihapitiya said the 2020 corporate-credit backstop effectively removed refinancing failure as a tradable bet for major companies. Because the government was buying debt in the open market rather than negotiating direct loans, it could support issuers but could not bargain for warrants or equity upside in return.

David Friedberg said California’s emergency contracting deserved deeper scrutiny because pandemic rules allowed no-bid awards. He highlighted a reported $1.9 billion PerkinElmer testing contract and $100 million Accenture vaccination-site contract, arguing reporters should trace where the money went, what was delivered and who benefited.

Jason Calacanis said he had raised $54,000 from 455 donors to fund independent scrutiny of San Francisco DA Chesa Boudin’s case outcomes. He planned to give roughly $50,000, after insurance, to a journalist or data scientist to examine plea-downs, felony prosecutions and convictions rather than headline charging counts.

David Sacks said he had spoken with Gavin Newsom recall organizers that morning, who reported 1.95 million signatures and an 84% validation rate. He also said direct mail had proved effective for gathering signatures despite lockdown-era limits on in-person collection, giving the campaign a concrete workaround.

The sharpest disagreement on vaccine passports was whether they would disappear with COVID or become lasting infrastructure. Sacks expected them to fade as vaccine access expanded, while Palihapitiya predicted “biological Patriot Act”-style rules, private vaccination requirements and eventual Supreme Court litigation over those mandates.