E55: Valuing crypto projects, Rivian worth $100B+, inflation: causes and corrections and more

The four hosts disclosed that each has a post-recording veto, and two used it to cut the Solana controversy from the previous episode. They reversed course only after Sacks said the allegation had become a recurring meme at the Solana conference, confirming that episodes can be altered by mutual consent after recording.

Sacks disclosed Craft had roughly $1 billion of Solana exposure through Multicoin and had privately asked Chamath about a possible OTC sale. He said Craft instead hoped to distribute tokens to LPs in kind, while Chamath said he had never sold SOL and remained a net buyer.

Sacks said Solana’s 2021 conference felt less like white papers and more like real businesses, with transactions around 400 milliseconds and pennies rather than Ethereum’s minutes and much higher fees. He also stressed Solana’s decentralization trade-off and reported Multicoin’s view that it could overtake Ethereum in developer activity.

Chamath said his PIPE investments were up 19% only because of one outlier; without it, he was down 17% on roughly $200 million. He blamed the result on relying too much on others’ underwriting, called the portfolio a “disaster,” and said he was selling positions down.

The panel used Rivian as its clearest example of stretched markets: about 148 vehicles sold to employees against a roughly $120 billion valuation. Jason Calacanis valued it near $20 billion, while Chamath countered that investors had driven the vehicles and toured factories, making scale and execution the real dispute.

The sharpest macro concern was not simply 6.2% inflation, but the government’s reduced room to fight it with higher rates. Sacks argued that with nearly $30 trillion of federal debt and roughly five-year average maturity, each percentage-point rise would eventually add about $300 billion annually to debt service.

The conglomerate discussion became personal when Sacks recalled opposing eBay management and backing a PayPal spinout alongside Elon Musk. He said they believed PayPal could exceed $100 billion once freed from eBay, illustrating why the panel viewed focus as more valuable than hypothetical conglomerate synergies.

A dinner anecdote captured crypto’s challenge to venture capital: one Y Combinator applicant reportedly held about $750 million in crypto and could self-fund a $15 million Series A. The panel said token projects could raise tens of millions almost instantly, creating a parallel financing system outside traditional VC.