E61: 2022 Predictions! Business, politics, science, tech, crypto, & more

David Friedberg warned that 2022 could mark the start of a larger global conflict, naming Ukraine and Taiwan as plausible flashpoints. He later said he had made a large bet on energy and defense stocks, treating them as hedges against the geopolitical risk he described.

David Sacks identified the Federal Reserve’s planned end of quantitative easing as the market risk he feared most. He expected reduced liquidity—not merely higher rates—to pressure crypto, art, collectibles and growth stocks that had benefited from abundant money.

Jason Calacanis and Friedberg both expected a broad crypto washout, with Friedberg estimating roughly 90% of projects could fail or lose value. Their distinction was that speculative and leveraged projects would be culled while a small number of useful networks could survive and become substantially larger.

Chamath Palihapitiya proposed an aggressive payments trade: short Visa and Mastercard while backing utility-focused crypto infrastructure. He argued their 2–3% transaction economics were vulnerable and that replacement systems could emerge first in underbanked markets before spreading into developed economies.

The hosts moved from discussing California school choice to pledging financial support for it. Sacks said he had been approached about a proposed $13,000-per-pupil voucher initiative, after which the group agreed to direct All-In Summit profits toward the effort.

Palihapitiya proposed expanding All-In from a podcast into a broader media operation producing written and other content without advertising. The hosts said their independent wealth allowed them to avoid sponsor and traffic incentives, which they considered central to maintaining editorial independence.

Friedberg expected cellular reprogramming to become biotechnology’s next major investment rush. He cited roughly $1 billion behind Altos Labs, $100 million committed to NewLimit and Google-backed Calico as evidence that Yamanaka-factor research was already attracting unusually large amounts of capital.

Friedberg forecast that cell-based chicken would become available within a year and cultured meat could reach commercial scale within five to ten years. He argued that taste and affordability, rather than persuasion alone, would determine whether consumers abandon conventionally produced meat.