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- The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed despite extensive US military strikes against Iran. As the war entered its third week, US military officials said 6,000 Iranian military targets had been struck, including ballistic missile sites and air-defence systems, and that Iran's navy was “combat ineffective.” Nevertheless, Iran continued to threaten commercial shipping and maintain control over passage through the strait.
- The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important oil chokepoints. The approximately 21-mile-wide waterway is the principal shipping route connecting oil-producing Persian Gulf countries with international markets. Roughly one-fifth of the world's oil passes through it. The report describes normal traffic as approximately 130 commercial vessels daily.
- The closure began on February 28, when Israeli and American aircraft began bombing Iran and Iran retaliated. Commercial shipping rapidly ground to a halt, creating an unprecedented disruption at one of the world's most important maritime chokepoints. An estimated 20,000 seafarers became stranded in and around the Persian Gulf, facing threats from missiles, drones and other attacks.
- A Thai cargo ship was struck by an Iranian projectile while attempting to cross the strait. The vessel caught fire and crew members became trapped. It was among the relatively few commercial ships that had attempted to navigate the waterway since the war began; most others remained stationary in surrounding waters.
- Hapag-Lloyd suspended its ships' movements early in the conflict. Captain Silke Lena Custer, operating from the German shipping company's Hamburg operations centre, oversees a fleet of approximately 300 vessels. Six of her cargo ships, carrying ordinary consumer goods including furniture, electronics and clothing, were approaching the Strait of Hormuz when Iran's Revolutionary Guard broadcast a warning over ship radios declaring navigation through the strait forbidden.
- Custer ordered her six cargo ships not to proceed. Approximately 150 men were trapped aboard the vessels as the conflict intensified. Their crews reported seeing drones flying overhead, explosions near ports and substantial smoke. They were instructed to remain below deck as much as possible to reduce their exposure to attacks.
- Communication with stranded crews became difficult because satellite communications were being interfered with. Custer said her operations team nevertheless maintained regular contact with the vessels. Her staff monitored the locations of their ships around the clock, including overnight.
- Approximately 700 ships were sitting in the Persian Gulf, including 400 oil tankers carrying around 200 million barrels of oil. That quantity was described as sufficient to fuel Japan for approximately two months. The immobilisation of these vessels represents a substantial interruption to the movement of oil through international markets.
- Commercial vessels have suffered repeated attacks, with fatalities among seafarers. Two oil tankers off the Iraqi coast were struck by Iranian explosives and set ablaze; one was American-owned. Their crews were rescued by boat, and the damaged vessels were subsequently seen drifting in the water. Since the war began, 16 confirmed attacks on ships in and around the Persian Gulf had been recorded, with Iran claiming responsibility for several. At least eight crew members had been killed.
- Ship-tracking data shows a dramatic collapse in Strait of Hormuz traffic. Matt Smith, an oil market analyst at Kepler, which monitors international trade and shipping, presented a time-lapse of vessel movements. His figures showed approximately 100 ships passing through on a normal day, falling to around 70 when the bombing began, then dropping into the teens by Sunday. Subsequently, only one or two tankers were passing through daily.
- Hundreds of oil tankers had become effectively stationary assets. Smith's tracking visualisation showed numerous vessels that had not moved for approximately two weeks. He described the situation as an extremely expensive parking lot, with ships and their cargoes unable to reach their intended destinations.
- The few tankers continuing to move through the strait were predominantly Iranian. Smith identified an Iranian tanker called Hilda carrying approximately two million barrels of crude oil. Its cargo was typically destined for China, illustrating that Iranian oil shipments were continuing despite the disruption affecting other international shipping.
- Iran's oil exports had actually increased during the conflict, according to Kepler's analysis. Smith and his team discovered that Iran was exporting approximately 100,000 more barrels of oil per day than before the war, with most of the additional exports going to China. This contrasts with the severe disruption experienced by other oil-producing countries and international shipping companies.
- Nine Iranian oil tankers had reportedly passed through the Strait of Hormuz by switching off their tracking transponders. These devices normally reveal a vessel's location. Their deliberate deactivation allowed the tankers to travel without broadcasting their movements through ordinary tracking systems.
- Iran's new supreme leader publicly endorsed continuing the blockade as a strategic weapon. In his first public statement, read on Iranian state television on Thursday, he declared that the leverage provided by blocking the Strait of Hormuz must continue. The statement indicated that disrupting maritime traffic was being treated as an ongoing instrument of pressure rather than a temporary consequence of the fighting.
- Energy analyst Bob McNally described Hormuz as the world's most consequential oil chokepoint. McNally, a former energy adviser to President George W. Bush during the Iraq war who now advises clients on oil and gas markets, compared the strait to the single artery supplying blood to the human body. He argued that its importance was so great that the term “chokepoint” understated the consequences of its closure.
- McNally had anticipated the possibility of an Iranian blockade before the war. He said his team had published a substantial report the previous year warning that, if left unchallenged, Iran would have the capability to make the Strait of Hormuz unsafe for commercial shipping. He therefore regarded the current disruption as a foreseeable strategic risk.
- McNally supported the objective of weakening Iran's regime but questioned whether the economic consequences had been adequately addressed. He described President Trump's military objective as principled, courageous and correct. However, he argued that any military strategy should have included measures to protect international oil and gas markets from the outset.
- McNally questioned whether the United States had sufficiently targeted Iran's ability to disrupt shipping. He said the military campaign needed to prevent Iran from maintaining the capability it had demonstrated during the preceding 12 days and might continue exercising for an entire month. When asked whether the administration had adequately addressed that threat, he said he did not know. He nevertheless expressed concern about what had happened.
- American gasoline prices had increased by more than 65 cents per gallon since the war began. The increase represented the fastest weekly rise in 20 years. The previous national average record cited in the report was approximately $5 per gallon during the summer of 2022, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
- A prolonged closure could push American gasoline prices to unprecedented levels. McNally warned that if the strait did not reopen soon, the United States could establish a new record for gasoline prices. The key condition was restoring the free movement of commercial shipping through Hormuz.
- The disruption was already affecting other major fuel markets. Jet fuel and diesel prices had increased by approximately 25%. Higher airline ticket prices and grocery costs were expected to follow as transportation and production expenses increased.
- The economic consequences extend far beyond countries directly dependent on Persian Gulf oil. Gasoline prices are influenced by the global oil market, meaning that a supply disruption in one region can raise costs for consumers worldwide. Food production and transportation also depend heavily on petroleum products, so farmers, manufacturers and distributors facing higher fuel costs are likely to pass those expenses on to consumers. The report used a family shopping for groceries in Des Moines, Iowa, to illustrate how a distant maritime conflict could affect ordinary household spending.
- President Trump publicly portrayed Iran's maritime capabilities as substantially weakened. He said the strait was in good shape, that American forces had knocked out Iran's boats and that only a limited number of missiles remained. He expressed confidence that the United States was in a strong position.
- The actual behaviour of commercial shipping contradicted the administration's optimistic assessment. Despite Trump's assurances, most shipowners remained unwilling to risk sending their vessels through the strait. The continued standstill demonstrated that destroying military assets did not automatically restore confidence in the safety of international shipping.
- US Central Command had destroyed 30 Iranian vessels described as mine layers. These were boats believed to be used by Iran to deploy naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz's shipping lanes. Their destruction was intended to reduce the threat to commercial vessels attempting to navigate the waterway.
- The Trump administration proposed government-backed insurance assistance to encourage shipping companies to resume operations. Trump said the United States would help cover the cost of risk insurance, attempting to reassure shipowners concerned about potential losses from Iranian attacks.
- Trump also suggested that the US Navy could escort commercial vessels through the strait. However, there was no clear timetable for such protection because the Navy was already occupied with military operations in the war. At the time of the interview, Hapag-Lloyd's Captain Custer confirmed that no US Navy escort had been offered to her ships.
- Custer argued that insurance cannot adequately address the danger facing seafarers. Her response was that financial compensation cannot insure a person's life. She therefore considered naval escorts and actual physical protection more important than additional insurance coverage.
- The United States and 31 other countries planned a major release of emergency oil reserves. Together, 32 countries, including the United States, announced plans to release approximately 400 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves. These reserves exist to provide emergency supplies during major disruptions, but the release was expected to take at least three months.
- The Trump administration temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil to increase available global supply. The sanctions had originally been imposed to punish Moscow following its invasion of Ukraine. Suspending them was intended to allow more Russian oil to enter international markets while Persian Gulf shipments remained disrupted.
- McNally argued that conventional government interventions could not solve a prolonged Hormuz closure. Drawing on his experience working in the White House during an energy crisis, he said there were no meaningful policy solutions to a sustained interruption of the strait. He characterised the available measures as ranging from marginal to symbolic to deeply unwise.
- McNally dismissed naval escorts, strategic reserve releases and a gasoline tax holiday as inadequate solutions to the underlying problem. He described these measures as sideshows because none could restore the volume of oil normally transported through the Strait of Hormuz. His central argument was that reopening the waterway and restoring commercial traffic were essential.
- Ending the military conflict would not necessarily guarantee that Iran reopened the strait. McNally explained that Hormuz was not controlled by a physical gate that Iran could simply unlock. Iran only needed to demonstrate periodically that it retained the ability to attack commercial vessels. Even one attack every day or every other day could be sufficient to discourage shipping companies from returning.
- The threat to shipping continued even as the United States attempted to reassure the market. Another vessel was attacked on Thursday, reinforcing the concern that Iran could continue disrupting maritime traffic regardless of how much of its conventional military infrastructure had been destroyed.
- One of Hapag-Lloyd's six stranded cargo ships was struck shortly after Custer's interview. Two days after the interview, the vessel was attacked near a port outside Dubai and caught fire. No crew members were injured, but the incident directly demonstrated that the company's vessels remained exposed even while stationary in the Persian Gulf.
- Custer established clear conditions before allowing her crews to sail again. She said there would need to be a genuine end to the escalation, with no drones or missiles flying and a clear message from all involved parties that hostilities had stopped. General assurances about military progress or financial protection would not be sufficient.
- President Trump called on other countries, including China, to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. He argued that protecting the waterway should always have been a collective international responsibility rather than an exclusively American undertaking.
- Iran rejected the idea that international countries could independently determine access to the strait. Iran's foreign minister stated that the Iranian military would decide which countries were permitted to pass through. This reinforced the central strategic problem: despite American military operations and international efforts to restore oil supplies, Iran continued to assert control over commercial access to one of the world's most important shipping routes.