All points
1656 words
- The war has exposed a major economic imbalance in modern air defence. The United States is using sophisticated Patriot and THAAD interceptor missiles against Iranian drones that can be assembled from inexpensive, commercially available materials. The drones may cost as little as $20,000, yet require weapons costing millions of dollars to destroy.
- Iranian drones have already caused the first American military deaths of the war. An Iranian drone attack killed six US soldiers in Kuwait. Although Iranian drone attacks declined during the preceding week, the damage they inflicted shocked US officials and exposed the threat posed by inexpensive aerial weapons.
- Iran's Shahed drones threaten both military resources and critical infrastructure. They have targeted apartment buildings, airports and oil refineries across Gulf states. Their ability to operate in swarms, increase in speed and capability, and be produced in large quantities makes them particularly difficult to counter.
- The drones threaten US weapons reserves and the Strait of Hormuz. Their repeated use forces American forces to expend expensive interceptor missiles against relatively inexpensive targets, creating a potentially unsustainable exchange of resources while threatening an important international shipping route.
- American defence contractor AeroVironment (AV) is promoting laser weapons as a solution to the cost imbalance. CEO Waheed argued that directed-energy weapons could fundamentally change the economics of defending against drone attacks, particularly when adversaries can produce tens of thousands of inexpensive drones.
- The cost difference between missiles and laser shots is extraordinary. AV's CEO cited approximately $1 billion to procure a Patriot missile battery and around $4 million for each Patriot missile. He claimed AV's laser reduces the cost of an engagement to less than $5, typically around $3. These are company-provided figures rather than an independently established comparison of total operating costs.
- AV's Locust laser system costs approximately $8 million per unit. The system is manufactured at the company's facility in Albuquerque, New Mexico. It consists of a beam director mounted above a base containing batteries and cooling equipment. It can operate from a stationary position or be installed on the back of a truck.
- Locust has reportedly already been deployed in multiple military theatres. AV's CEO confirmed that the system had been used in actual battles, including against Shahed-type drones in the Middle East. However, he declined to identify the locations and explicitly said those deployments were not part of the current Iran war.
- The United States entered the current conflict without adequate preparation for inexpensive drone attacks. Mara Karlin, a former Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy, Plans, and Capabilities who served under both Democratic and Republican administrations, said the Pentagon had prepared for certain threats, particularly missiles, but was less prepared for drones attacking vulnerable civilian and infrastructure targets.
- Iran's use of inexpensive drones should not have surprised American military planners. Karlin explained that Iran's predictable strategy was to exploit cheap capabilities that are difficult to counter and deploy them across multiple locations. She also cautioned that warfare rarely produces one permanent solution: adversaries develop countermeasures as soon as new defensive technologies emerge.
- AV faces substantial international competition in laser defence. Major American contractors Lockheed Martin and Raytheon are developing competing systems. Israel has its Iron Beam system, which forms part of its Iron Dome defence architecture. Ukraine also has a laser system, while China has publicly displayed its laser capabilities during a major military parade.
- Locust uses radar, human targeting and artificial intelligence to engage drones. Its radar can detect an approaching enemy drone from up to seven miles away. An operator initially identifies and locks onto the target using a standard Xbox-style controller. Once locked, AI takes over tracking and follows the drone without requiring continuous manual control.
- The reported engagement range is approximately two to three miles. As the approaching drone reaches this distance, the laser directs concentrated energy onto it. The system's automatic tracking is designed to reduce the operator's workload and allow the weapon to follow moving targets.
- The laser destroys drones through concentrated heat rather than an explosive projectile. The beam travels at the speed of light and generates enough heat to melt through the plastic and other materials used in drone construction. Because it does not depend on conventional ammunition, the system can continue firing at a target until it is destroyed.
- A controlled demonstration showed Locust penetrating and setting a drone on fire. AV placed a drone inside a secured hangar, with the demonstration observed remotely through monitors. The laser itself was invisible to the naked eye but could be seen using infrared-sensitive cameras. Footage showed the beam penetrating the drone and flames appearing almost immediately.
- AV claims Locust can engage targets rapidly, but the demonstration did not establish simultaneous engagement of 100 drones. When asked whether the system could shoot down 100 drones, the company representative explained that engagements could take approximately one second or less, depending on distance, allowing operators to move rapidly through multiple targets. He did not demonstrate or confirm the ability to destroy 100 drones simultaneously.
- AV says its newer Locust system is specifically designed for the Shahed threat. Its representative reported considerable success against similar drone types and said the new system was directly intended to address the kind of attacks Iran is conducting.
- Laser defence remains a relatively young and experimental military technology. Ongoing testing has raised questions about accuracy, operational performance, battery weight, energy requirements and reliability. These limitations matter because a weapon that works in controlled conditions may perform differently during sustained military operations.
- Weather and atmospheric conditions remain important technical concerns. Rain, humidity, sand, fog and dust can interfere with laser performance. AV's representative declined to discuss specific deployments but claimed its systems had remained at their battle stations through weather events without needing to be brought inside. He also argued that drones traditionally do not fly in rain.
- Mara Karlin considers laser weapons valuable but not a complete defence. She said the technology deserves a place in the American arsenal and has received some investment, although she believes the investment has been insufficient. She stressed that effective defence also requires intelligence about where threats originate and the ability to make the physics of targeting work reliably.
- The long-term military value of lasers remains uncertain. Karlin described them as particularly valuable at the present moment but questioned whether they would retain the same importance six months later. Her warning reflects the likelihood that drone technology and countermeasures will continue evolving together.
- The timing of laser technology's development coincides with an urgent military demand for cheaper defensive weapons. As the war entered its third week, laser systems were becoming more mature at precisely the moment the US military needed alternatives to expensive conventional interceptors.
- The US Army has requested approximately $100 million worth of Locust systems. AV's CEO confirmed that the Army requested delivery of that amount of laser-directed-energy equipment during the autumn. This represents a substantial procurement opportunity for the company, although the transcript does not establish that the full amount had already been contracted or delivered.
- Locust is already being used in a separate American military operation against drug-smuggling drones. The Army has reportedly been shooting down drones operated by drug cartels along the Mexican border since the previous month. These operations are separate from the war against Iran.
- Drug cartels are using drones to transport more than drugs. The discussion highlighted that drones can also carry cash across the border, offering smugglers an alternative to physically transporting money through underground tunnels. The Army is conducting the operations using Locust, with AV's representative believing the military is cooperating with Customs and Border Protection.
- Locust deployments near the Texas border contributed to two FAA airspace shutdowns. Following the system's use near West Texas, the Federal Aviation Administration closed airspace near the border twice. The restrictions caused flight cancellations and cargo diversions, demonstrating that deploying military laser technology can have consequences for civilian aviation operations.
- The FAA's concerns involved possible interference with commercial aircraft. The shutdowns raised questions about whether laser systems could damage or interfere with passenger airplanes operating nearby. The reporter specifically asked whether directing a laser towards a commercial flight could burn through the aircraft and cause a crash.
- AV strongly rejected the suggestion that its system could harm commercial airliners. Its CEO said the FAA had conducted a series of tests during the preceding weekend to demonstrate that the company's technology could not defeat or damage a commercial aircraft. He also claimed the system was designed to prevent targeting mistakes. These assurances were presented by the manufacturer; the transcript does not provide the underlying test results.
- Selling Locust to Gulf governments requires American government approval. Because the technology has national-security implications, exports would require authorisation from both the Pentagon and the State Department. AV cannot independently decide to sell the systems to countries such as Bahrain.
- AV cannot immediately fulfil a large international order, even if export approval is granted. When asked whether it could supply Bahrain with 500 systems to protect hotels and other targets, the CEO said it could not deliver them the following day. The company currently has authorisation to supply the US military, not unrestricted permission to manufacture and sell the technology internationally.
- AV faces a production-financing dilemma when considering international expansion. The CEO described a chicken-and-egg problem: the company cannot responsibly build potentially $1 billion worth of equipment without a contract or financial guarantee that a customer will purchase it. Manufacturing at that scale would expose AV to substantial financial risk.
- Even immediate government approval would not solve the production bottleneck. The CEO estimated that AV would need several months to scale up manufacturing sufficiently to supply a large Gulf-state order. The distinction is important: export authorisation, a commercial contract and actual manufacturing capacity are three separate requirements.